Once again, the curtain call of the Championship is upon us – and true to its reputation, the drama is set to go down to the wire, with five teams battling it out for just two remaining play-off spots.
The Final Day Picture.
Just three points separate 5th and 9th place as they all fight for the chance to get to the Promised Land of the Premier League. Securing promotion via the play-offs has been given the moniker of “the richest game in football”, with Southampton, last year’s winners, reportedly earning £170m for their Wembley triumph over Leeds United. That figure, it was reported, could have risen as high as £305m had Southampton avoided relegation from the Premier League this season. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the teams involved.
Who Needs What?
With Sheffield United and Sunderland already confirmed for the play-offs, Bristol City, Coventry City, Millwall, Blackburn Rovers and Middlesbrough go into the final day hoping results go their way.
Bristol City sit fifth in the table. After losing to Leeds United on Monday night, they know their play-off fate is still in their own hands. The Robins are back at Ashton Gate on Saturday afternoon for their final league fixture against Preston North End knowing a victory will cement their 5th place finish and play-off spot. This could arguably be the trickiest fixture of all the five teams aiming to make the final play-off spots. Preston North End themselves are in a must-win position as three points will ensure they have definitely survived relegation to League One.
Unbeaten in their last seven matches at home, and on a run of four consecutive victories, you have to go back to February 9th for the last time The Robins tasted defeat on home soil. Bristol City will be hoping this home form will be enough to see them through their match with Preston on Saturday.
Coventry City, currently occupying 6th place with 66 points, host fellow play-off hopefuls Middlesbrough. A victory for the Sky Blues will cement their place while also condemning Middlesbrough to another year in English football’s second tier. However, a win for Middlesbrough will see them leapfrog Coventry on points, but their fate will also rest in the hands of both Millwall and Blackburn.
Millwall, in 7th place, face an almost impossibly difficult task of heading to Turf Moor and trying to secure a victory. Burnley have not been beaten at home all season and have yet to concede more than a single goal in a league game this campaign. Millwall, however, are one of only two teams to beat the Clarets in the Championship this season, and are the last team to beat them, back in November, with a 1-0 victory at The Den. A win for The Lions would put them on 69 points and within a real shout of clinching a play-off place. However, as is the dramatic fashion every year in a play-off run-in, this also relies on the results of Bristol City and Coventry City, and potentially even goal difference.
Blackburn Rovers are currently sitting in 8th place. They can reach 6th position with a final day victory at Bramall Lane. Rovers have only won seven of their 22 away fixtures this season so a trip to Sheffield United is hardly the ideal hunting ground for much-needed points. Blackburn must win to stand any chance of getting into the top six but are currently on a run of four consecutive league victories. A win will give them a final points tally of 68 points, but should any two of Bristol City, Coventry City or Millwall win then that points total will fall just short.
The Form
In terms of form for the play-off challengers, over the last five league games Blackburn Rovers are in the form side. They have taken 13 points following a draw and four wins. Millwall are in red-hot form right now also, they have taken 12 points in that same period, winning four and losing one. Incidentally that sole defeat in their last five came at the hands of Blackburn Rovers.
Bristol City and Coventry are in identical form heading into the last round of fixtures. Both side have lost their last two league games following two wins and a draw across their previous three. A worrying statistic for Liam Manning and his Bristol City side is that after conceding only three goals in the three games prior, they have leaked seven goals across their last two. A tightening up of the defence much needed if they are to head into the play-offs.
The strugglers of the pack over the last five games are Middlesbrough. Just a solitary win against relegation candidates Plymouth Argyle – courtesy of a 93rd minute Tommy Conway penalty – the only bright note on an otherwise poor run recently. More concerning for Boro, perhaps, is the fact they drew a blank in three of their last five games. They are actually the highest scorers of all these five teams across the season, but the goals seem to be drying up at precisely the wrong time.
All the teams involved have players capable of turning on the style when needed. Tommy Conway and Finn Azaz have 25 goals between them for Middlesbrough, while Anis Mehmeti and Nahki Wells have 22 combined for Bristol City. Haji Wright has 12 goals on his own for Coventry City and Millwall’s Serbian attacker Mihailo Ivanovic has himself 11 goals so far this season. Individually it could be argued that Blackburn’s Tyrhys Dolan and Yuki Ohashi should have had more goals this season, they have seven and eight goals respectively, but there is no denying that when either one is on form the goals will come.
Play-Off History
Of all the five teams competing for the final two play-off spots, only Millwall have never contested a second-tier play-off final – further motivation, perhaps, for them. Middlesbrough and Blackburn have both featured in two second tier play-off finals in their histories, winning one and losing one apiece. Boro were promoted to Division One (the summit of the English football pyramid at the time, for our younger readers) in 1988 after beating Chelsea 2-1. Their most recent Championship play-off final was in 2015 and ended in heartbreak, as they were beaten 2-0 by Norwich City.
Blackburn lost their first ever play-off final in the second division back in 1989 in a thrilling 4-3 loss to Crystal Palace. They did, however, become the first team to be promoted to the newly formed Premier League via the play-offs in 1992, beating Leicester City 1-0.
Bristol City’s only taste of the Championship play-off final ended in a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Hull City back in 2008. Coventry City suffered perhaps the most heartbreaking defeat of all, losing at Wembley as recently as 2023. After a 1-1 draw in normal time, and no further goals in extra time, Coventry were beaten 6-5 in a penalty shootout against Luton Town thus denying them a return to the Premier League after 22 turbulent years away.
Permutations and Final Day Drama
So as the final day looms, the permutations for all these five teams should ensure that there is drama throughout Saturday afternoon. Bristol City know a win will guarantee them a play-off place. A draw for The Robins could allow Coventry, Millwall and even Blackburn (depending on the margin of a win) to overtake them with victories.
Middlesbrough must beat Coventry at the CBS Arena in order to have any chance of securing a play-off spot. Even with victory they will still need Bristol City to lose and also Millwall and Blackburn Rovers to fail to win at Burnley and Sheffield United respectively.
Coventry have their fate in their own hands – a win over Middlesbrough at home will secure a play-off place and even a 5th place finish should Bristol City fail to beat Preston at Ashton Gate. Given that they are on the same points as Millwall, they could find themselves beating Boro but still finishing 6th if Bristol City lose and Millwall beat Burnley by a margin which allows them to eclipse Coventry’s superior goal difference.
Despite being in great form, Millwall’s goal difference of zero could hinder their chances of getting into the top six. They could go above Bristol City into 5th with only a draw, but that would require Preston beating The Robins heavily as Bristol City’s goal difference is four better than Millwall. However, with a win and if Bristol City and Coventry fail to win, this would be enough to secure a play-off spot for The Lions.
Blackburn Rovers need a win at Bramall Lane and hope both Coventry and Millwall fail to win their fixtures. This will leave Blackburn on 68 points and place them above Coventry and Millwall who would only be on 66 or 67 points depending on a draw or a defeat for either. This would also put them above Bristol City providing The Robins lose at home to Preston North End.
With all the permutations and all games kicking off simultaneously, you can be assured of some high drama and plenty of twists and turns over 90 minutes on the final day. Once again, the Championship has served up edge-of-the-seat tension right up until the final day.
