The top of League One may appear clear cut with Birmingham the obvious runaway leaders, but the situation at the bottom is less so. No side is safe just yet, albeit a divide between the form sides pulling themselves away and the lower strugglers does seem more apparent. The gap has begun to open up between the bottom four and rest of the pack, but what is the overall picture in the third tier’s relegation battle?..
The Good
Bristol Rovers followed up disappointing results against Northampton, Rotherham, and Shrewsbury – where they yielded just one point – with back-to-back wins against play-off chasing sides Huddersfield and Bolton. The Gas have taken 18 out of 24 points at the Memorial Stadium since Inigo Calderon’s Boxing Day appointment and are averaging 2.25 goals / game in that space, having seemingly solved their goal scoring issues.
Away form remains the weak point, with the Gas recording just 11 points away from the Mem – the most recent win at Cambridge just after New Year’s Day are the only away points besides the recent disappointing draw at bottom placed Shrewsbury under Calderon. Rovers now sit nine points clear of the drop zone – perhaps an unexpected gap considering the rearranged Bolton fixture was earmarked for a point at best – and appear to have more than enough quality to continue to steer themselves away from danger.
Exeter, similar to Rovers, have recorded back-to-back victories across the weekend and midweek; however in slightly different fashion, with both their wins coming against fellow strugglers Shrewsbury and Mansfield. But the points will be much welcome for the Grecians, given that their last league win came against Cambridge in mid-February – their only win since beating Rovers on Boxing Day.
That means the Devonshire club have taken 11 out of the last 15 available points, are unbeaten in three, and have now managed clean sheets in all of those; shutouts from Joe Whitworth were what Exeter built their early form on, and a quartet of good performances have seen the rewards return. Pressure on Gary Caldwell seems to be lessening, and if Exeter continue this form with still several games against the bottom half to go, they too should be able to avoid the drop to League Two with relative ease.
The Bad
Mansfield are at the bottom of all form guides; they recorded three straight draws before the loss to Exeter (what head coach Andy Garner referred to as an “absolutely disgraceful performance”), including at Burton, which while not the worst point, likely would’ve been a game marked for more – in fairness, from both sides.
Nigel Clough is the fifth longest serving manager in English football but has to be under some pressure when his side have taken an incredibly measly four points out of the last 39 up for grabs. The Stags began the year with great victories against play-off hopefuls Bolton and Stockport but endured a winless February. Their dire form has continued to now as they find themselves embroiled within the heart of the relegation scrap with limited form and presumably a similar level of confidence to pair with it.
Burton’s place here could be referred to as ‘a bit harsh’ when you take into account that they took 19 points from 30 before understandably falling short to Wycombe and Bolton. But with a gap forming above them in 21st place, little short of three points will ease Brewers fans’ nerves at the prospect of the drop to League Two.
Crucially, they travel to Shrewsbury this weekend and will want nothing less than maximum points against the bottom placed side. Gary Bowyer has got his men to be tough to beat – a strategy that’s seen them well for their run of form – but an improvement of the goal difference wouldn’t hurt the Brewers’ chances come May.
The Bottom Three
Shrewsbury have found themselves sink to bottom in recent weeks, having earnt just two points in their last seven games. February started well for Gareth Ainsworth with wins against Mansfield and Rotherham, but their most recent draw against Bristol Rovers [their latest point(s)] will be regarded as a better point for the Gas than Shrewsbury.
The Shrews importantly host Burton this weekend, as mentioned above; it’s a genuine six-pointer, with a point not satisfactory for either side at this stage. In fact, they host all three of their fellow bottom three sides before the end of the season, and actually end the campaign by welcoming Crawley to the New Meadow for what may end up being a null affair.
Cambridge too have a similar set of games remaining to Shrewsbury – they travel to all three of the bottom four [excluding themselves], before May. Gary Monk departed the U’s in mid-February and the return of Neil Harris saw them record back-to-back victories, against Stockport and crucially Crawley.
That lifted them off the bottom but they’ve lost all three games since by a single goal, having scored just once in that – representative of their somewhat improved defending yet continued fairly blunt attack. Perhaps the difference between Cambridge and Shrewsbury is the fact the U’s host Birmingham on the final day; the Blues are likely to have been promoted well before that date, but it still far from represents a simple task if their survival does come to the last game.
Crawley would be able to boast having the worst defensive numbers in the league – if that was something to boast about. Calls for Rob Elliot to be removed from his post haven’t gone unnoticed, with a seeming inability to keep clean sheets meaning they’ve conceded 66 goals – six clear of the bottom two and Peterborough [all level on 60 goals conceded].
The Red Devils still have five home games against teams in the current bottom nine – the most of anyone in the bottom half. However if their form is continued the final day trip to Shrewsbury will be irrelevant and their fate will be sealed comfortably before that date.
The Remainder…
The remaining fixtures of the bottom half playing each other. This table displays the bottom half sides’ fixtures against fellow bottom half sides from the start of March [order of teams true as of start of the month – order has changed since]. Of course, points aren’t solely picked up against one another here, but these games represent the relegation threatened best chances for points.
That said, of the six games involving the bottom four since the start of the month, only Burton have picked up a point – away at out-of-form Mansfield. The bottom four do still have five games against one another though. It is the Stags themselves that appear to be the worst off, however, with just four games left against the sides around them amongst being devoid of confidence.
It was noted last time that Huddersfield would continue to have an effect on the relegation scene, an assumption proven right after their loss in Bristol; the Terriers have since sacked Michael Duff but still host Crawley, Mansfield, and Cambridge, while travelling to Burton and Exeter before the end of the campaign.
Touched upon earlier, Crawley still host a selection of the bottom sides, while Shrewsbury have just one less home game against the bottom half with four – with three of those against the others in the bottom four.
Exeter did have five home and five away fixtures against fellow strugglers; having taken seven out of nine points so far from three of the home games, they carry both form and fixtures into the remainder.
Peterborough are the side probably deserving of a larger mention considering their run of six unbeaten in all competitions, which includes an impressive (league) draw against Wycombe.
The Posh have also booked themselves a place at Wembley for the EFL Trophy final against Birmingham – the competition of which they are holders – after taking out Wrexham on penalties.
Darren Ferguson’s men sit 20th despite that but are one of the few remaining teams still with a game in hand; with Cambridge to play this weekend, a win could see them move up a few places and put distance between themselves and the drop.
Northampton have had a similarly impressive run of late and maybe also deserve a bigger discussion: the Cobblers have taken 14/24 points in their last eight league fixtures, but sit 19th with the prospect of being overtaken by Peterborough looming.
Kevin Nolan’s side host runaway leaders Birmingham this weekend while Posh have a considerably easier fixture, on paper, at the other end of the table.
At the top end of the bottom half, Lincoln are only two points behind Stevenage who occupy 12th place; the Imps host the fragile travellers Bristol Rovers next with the chance at moving into the top half.
Their form has been unimpressive but have the ability to pick off sides below them, shown with their wins against Mansfield and Crawley – albeit lost to Burton inbetween.
Rotherham and Wigan have a game in hand over Lincoln and could both move past them, if the Latics were to improve their goal difference.
All in all, an escaping pack does appear to be forming.
Peterborough could put a gap of eight points between Burton and survival after they face Cambridge in the lunchtime kick off, prior to the Brewers’ game at Shrewsbury.
But naturally, no one deserves the title of being safe until it’s mathematically proven – the League One relegation battle is still on…
