It’s silly season in the EFL, and as EFL League One sides slowly assemble their sides for the upcoming campaign, many online have begun to share their predictions for how the table might look come May.
Whilst some creators have done their research and others seem to have never watched a 3rd tier game in their lives, a few general agreements have arisen about the placements of certain teams. Here are four seemingly controversial predictions that disagree with the current consensus.
BURTON BAG SURVIVAL
A lot of predictions seem to share the sentiment that Burton Albion will be occupying one of the league’s four relegation spots come May. Fair enough – the Brewers spent only eleven match-days out of them last season, so why won’t they be down there again this season?
For a start, the man in charge. Gary Bowyer is an expert in fighting adversity whilst managing. Having done amazing jobs in strenuous circumstances under the Venky’s at Blackburn and the Oyston’s at Blackpool, Bowyer took charge at the Pirelli with the Brewers nine points from safety, hurtling towards EFL League Two after a disastrous start to the season.
Termed by the BBC as a miracle, the 53-year-old turned the club’s fortunes around, with Burton becoming the 11th best team in EFL League One since Bowyer’s appointment. With one game to go, the club secured survival with a 1-1 draw away to Wigan, something which would have seemed impossible just six months prior.
With the Brewer’s first three fixtures coming against Mansfield, Barnsley and Port Vale, Bowyer has a good chance to build some early season momentum. The club have recruited smartly, bringing in Jake Beesley and Fabio Tavares from Blackpool and Coventry respectively, as well of securing the return of loanee JJ McKiernan from EFL League One rivals Lincoln City.
The Brewers’ hopes may be boosted should they be able to keep hold of key man Rumarn Burrell. The Jamaican international netted eleven times following Bowyer’s appointment, whilst also chipping in with a couple assists. If he can stay fit and firing, the club has a talent on their hands, who will no doubt contribute to their survival next season. Whilst promotion may not be on the cards, the Brewers should hopefully be able to find their place in mid-table once again next season.
HATTERS HANGOVER
At the time of writing, Luton may be the bookmaker’s favourites for promotion, but it’s hard to work out how much of that is based on the fact they were in the Premier League just two seasons ago and how much is based in reality. Following a double relegation the pressure will be on the Hatters to make an instant return to the EFL Championship, but promotion is far from guaranteed.
As we’ve seen with bigger sides such as Leeds and Sunderland, reputation alone does not get you out of the 3rd tier and the team that lines up for the first game of the season at home to AFC Wimbledon will no doubt differ vastly to the one that lost to Fulham to confirm Premier League relegation.
With the losses of key men Carlton Morris, Thomas Kaminski and Amari’i Bell already confirmed, and with whispers that the departures of talents such as Thelo Aasgaard are also looming, the need for replacements at Kenilworth Road is growing. Only two signings have been confirmed so far, and the Hatters will need much more than that if they wish to overcome the brutal mental hangover that comes with back-to-back relegations.
This will be no soft landing for Luton. With the Birmingham juggernaut and the Hollywood fame of Wrexham gone, last season’s hopefuls will be raring to fill the void left behind. With sides such as Huddersfield, Bolton and Stockport quietly strengthening, the battle for the top six, let alone the top two, is shaping up to be one of the tastiest in EFL League One history.
If Luton can’t shake off their mental load and quickly rebuild an identity, the upcoming season could be a tough one at Kenilworth Road. Whilst the Hatters should be in no danger of a reverse Wrexham, a lot has to change before they can be considered EFL League One’s team to watch.
SEASIDERS SURGE
As a Blackpool fan I may be a little biased, but the Seasiders are never given respect or consideration by fans and pundits alike when it comes to predictions. Even in seasons when you would expect the Seasiders to be in and around the promotion spots, they’re often overlooked. This attribute of flying under the radar has often worked to the Seasiders’ advantage and it’s not without reason that they are the EFL’s play-off kings, with a record six promotions.
The Seasiders’ summer signings have been promising, and the five through the door already are all players who fit straight into the clubs starting eleven. George Honeyman takes the place of Sonny Carey, bringing a wealth of EFL Championship experience with him, whilst Niall Ennis slots straight back into the side where he scored seven whilst on loan last season. Centre back duo Fraser Horsfall and Michael Ihiekwe bring top level competition and partnership for the highly rated Oliver Casey, and Franco Ravizzoli looks a good signing after his spell at Wycombe Wanderers.
The Tangerines have had to see off high level competition to make these signings, with Huddersfield, Bolton and even Championship sides having been reported to have been sniffing around a couple of the names the Seasiders have brought in. Owner Simon Sadler seems to be producing the goods to back Steve Bruce this window, and the former Newcastle manager has admitted to the Blackpool Gazette that there is still room for four or five more.
Whilst last season’s 9th placed finish was disappointing, there is undeniably a good core at Bloomfield Road. On their day, midfield duo Lee Evans and Albie Morgan slot into most of the division’s other sides, whilst top talents Rob Apter and Tom Bloxham will only continue to improve with regular game time. Under the guidance of the experienced Bruce, and with a few more high-level signings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Seasiders in the top six come May.
PROMOTED SIDES REALITY CHECK
With respect to the four promoted sides joining the division, it feels a lot of predictions have been skewed by unprecedented successes of Wrexham and Stockport last season. Whilst it may be an ever-increasing trend that sides promoted from the National League tend to perform well in their first season in the Football League, EFL League One is a whole different story.
In the last five years, of all the sides promoted to EFL League One (excluding Wrexham and Stockport), the average first season finish is 16th. Even with the addition of last season’s hard hitters, this only improves to 15th. Of these 18 teams, five dropped straight back to EFL League Two in their first season, whilst only two recorded a top ten finish.
In fact, when we look at how these clubs have performed since 2020, although Bolton and Leyton Orient have flirted with the play-offs, only Plymouth, who were promoted from EFL League Two in 2019/20, have managed the jump to the EFL Championship. Solidifying their position in the league will be crucial for the four newcomers – from the 12 teams promoted between 2020 and 2022, only three haven’t been relegated since.
Given last seasons promotion race, and the fact each side tried their best to give their automatic spot to another team, it’s perhaps not unfair to temper expectations and expect a lower mid-table finish from the league’s new boys. AFC Wimbledon will be the team to keep an eye on – three of the last five play-off winners have been relegated immediately, whilst Port Vale and Morecambe only lasted one season more.
