The ten-game mark in the EFL season has always carried a sense of intrigue. It’s the first point at which league tables feel meaningful, when strong starts can hint at promotion charges and poor ones raise relegation fears. But how much does being top of the pile after ten matches really matter?
To find out, we’ve looked back over the last five seasons, spanning pre and post covid, to uncover exactly how often early leaders in the Championship, League One and League Two convert fast starts into promotion. The results show stories of dramatic collapses, clear patterns and a few surprises.
Championship – Promise That Threatens To Fade
The Championship is famed for its unpredictability. Parachute payments, packed fixture lists, and managerial upheaval all make it a minefield. Unsurprisingly, leaders after ten games don’t always make it over the line.
- 2024/25: Sunderland – Tony Mowbray’s side looked strong early, and though they dipped to 4th, they proved resilient, navigating the play-offs to return to the Premier League.
- 2023/24: Leicester City – With Premier League quality throughout their squad, they set the pace and never slowed, romping to the title.
- 2022/23: Sheffield United – A well-drilled team with depth and discipline, they converted early form into a runners-up finish, amassing 91 points.
- 2021/22: West Brom – Looked formidable in autumn but unravelled, ending 10th in a season that summed up the volatility of the league.
- 2018/19: West Brom – History repeated itself: leaders after ten games, but only 4th by May, losing in the play-offs to Aston Villa.
📊 Three of the five leaders (60%) went up—but just one as champions.
👉 Verdict: The Championship tests endurance. Squads without depth tend to burn out, while genuine quality, like Leicester City or Sheffield United, are extremely hard to topple over the course of a full season.
League One – Early Leaders Set the Tone
League One, by contrast, has been a far clearer predictor. Four of the last five early leaders have been promoted, three of them as champions.
- 2024/25: Birmingham City – Backed by investment and momentum, they looked too strong for the division, cruising to the title.
- 2023/24: Portsmouth – Finally ended years of frustration by converting a flying start into a championship-winning campaign.
- 2022/23: Plymouth Argyle – Their blend of tactical nous and attacking quality carried them to the top spot.
- 2021/22: Sunderland – A rare wobble saw them drop from the summit, but they still found their way up via the play-offs.
- 2018/19: Portsmouth – The one misfire, falling from leaders to 4th before losing in the play-offs.
📊 Four of the five leaders (80%) were promoted—three as champions.
👉 Verdict: League One rewards fast starters. Clubs who set the pace tend to have the structure and resources to stay there.
League Two – Promotion or Pretender
League Two has provided the most dramatic contrasts. Leaders either march on to the title or collapse spectacularly.
- 2024/25: Gillingham – A disastrous slide saw them tumble from leaders to 17th, a fall that underlined the league’s volatility.
- 2023/24: Notts County – Tipped for big things, but inconsistency left them marooned in 14th.
- 2022/23: Leyton Orient – Strong early and consistent throughout, they sealed the championship.
- 2021/22: Forest Green Rovers – A club built for promotion; they lived up to the billing by taking the title.
- 2018/19: Lincoln City – Converted early dominance into silverware, finishing as champions.
📊 Three of the five leaders (60%) went up—all as champions. The other two slumped into mid-table obscurity.
👉 Verdict: League Two is brutal on pretenders. Lead early, and you either prove yourself the best or get ruthlessly exposed.
Why Do Some Last & Others Fade?
Several factors help explain the patterns:
- Squad depth: Championship leaders often collapse when injuries hit, while League One leaders with resources—like Birmingham or Portsmouth—sustain their push.
- Managerial stability: Clubs that keep a steady hand on the tiller usually fare better than those who change course mid-season.
- Fixture congestion: The winter grind separates contenders from pretenders, particularly in the Championship.
- Psychological pressure: Some clubs thrive on the confidence of leading, while others feel the weight of expectation.
The Numbers Behind the Stories
Across all three leagues over the last five seasons:
- 15 leaders after ten games
- 9 won promotion (60%)
- 6 champions (40%)
- 1 runner-up (7%)
- 2 play-off winners (13%)
- 6 failed to go up (40%)
By league:
- Championship – 60% promoted, but only 20% champions.
- League One – 80% promoted, 60% champions.
- League Two – 60% promoted, all champions.
Lessons for 2024/25
What does this mean for today’s leaders?
- Coventry (Championship): Their blistering start to the season has a good chance of being sustained, depth and consistency will be relied on in the long term
- Stevenage (League One): If we let the numbers do the talking, Stags fans could potentially start to get excited about the potential of becoming a Championship side. The only thing to consider here is the clubs fairly small stature and financial power compared to previous leaders after ten games.
- Walsall (League Two): The warning signs are there; this is a team that knows firsthand how unforgiving the League Two promotion race can be. They will look to right the wrongs of last season and match the trend of promoted clubs going up as champions.
