Cardiff City’s promotion push has hit a bump at the most crucial stage of the season.
The Bluebirds have picked up just one victory in their last four league games. This included a 2-0 defeat to Lincoln City at the Cardiff City Stadium last Saturday.
The Imps became the only team to complete the league double over the Welsh side this season while extending their unbeaten run to 18 matches.
Lincoln followed that up with a 1-0 away win at Exeter. Meanwhile, Cardiff were held to a 1-1 draw at Barnsley. This leaves Brian Barry-Murphy’s side in second place, four points behind the relentless league leaders.
In the aftermath, a recurring debate has surfaced among the Welsh faithful. Are Cardiff a better team with or without Ryan Wintle in midfield?
Some feel his cautious style slows the team and removes attacking tempo. Others argue that he is the foil who allows Cardiff to dominate and control matches.
Wintle joined from Crewe Alexandra on a free transfer in 2021. He was loaned out to Blackpool before being recalled by Steve Morison in January.
Under Morrison, he established himself as Cardiff’s first-choice No.6. From there, he became a key figure through multiple managerial changes.
He even captained the side on many occasions in Joe Ralls’ absence.
However, a fractured relationship with Erol Bulut brought another loan move. He spent last season at Millwall, where he struggled for minutes.
Wintle made just three starts and played 495 minutes during a difficult time in London.
Relegation and the arrival of manager Brian Barry-Murphy offered Wintle a fresh opportunity. He returned to compete with academy graduate Eli King for the No.6 role.
It divided fan opinion, with some questioning his reintegration, others felt his experience and ability could dominate League One.
Wintle’s impact is clear from the stats. Across his 31 starts this season, Cardiff have:
The numbers paint a clear picture. Cardiff score nearly twice per game and concede less than, projecting roughly around 99/100 points over a full season.
To put that into perspective, just six times has a team in the third tier recorded 100 points in a single season since the turn of the millennium.
In contrast, in the five matches Wintle hasn’t started, Cardiff have:
Even in a small sample size, it suggests that the team becomes significantly more vulnerable without Wintle’s anchoring the midfield.
Without him, Cardiff turn into a mid-lower League One side, conceding more than double, scoring less, and picking up just one fewer loss in 26 fewer games.
Cardiff’s average possession barely changes with or without Wintle. It is at 62.2% with him in the side and 63% without him.
However, the nature of the Bluebirds’ games tends to follow a very different pattern. With him, possession is controlled and allows the team to press higher.
Wintle acts as a defensive shield, preventing dangerous transitions and giving teammates freedom to attack.
However, in games where Cardiff hold over 70% possession, including against Lincoln and Barnsley recently, the slow tempo has proved a struggle to break down those disciplined defences.
Without Wintle, possession can become “empty possession” as the ball is held without a natural defensive screen but the team is repeatedly exposed on the counter-attack.
The Plymouth and Blackpool away fixtures highlight this. Cardiff dominated possession but conceded five and three goals respectively.
Wins do remain possible without him, as against Luton and Reading at the Cardiff City Stadium. However, defensive stability often suffers.
Adding to the debate is Wintle’s contract situation. He is due to be out of contract this summer, raising questions about his long-term future.
Should Cardiff earn promotion, some supporters doubt whether Wintle is up to the task of being a starting Championship No.6.
While his composure and ball retention are vital, critics argue the club may need a more physically dominant presence at the base of midfield.
Yet this season shows Wintle’s value in League One is undeniable. The numbers highlight how Cardiff consistently perform better with him.
He provides control, stability, and defensive insurance to allow players ahead of him to thrive.
With automatic promotion in mind, it seems a new deal is likely, even if debate continues about his ability to perform consistently in the second tier.
Ultimately, Wintle’s influence goes beyond numbers. He is an experienced leader amongst a young group, and Cardiff are a more stable and balanced side with him in it.
The challenge for Barry-Murphy’s side right now is converting their sustained possession into goals against compact defences.
Interestingly, Cardiff have had less than 50% possession four times in League One this season, and all have been victories against Leyton Orient 4-3 (H), Northampton 3-1 (A), Bradford 2-1 (A), and Rotherham 3-0 (A).
Cardiff sit nine points clear of Bolton Wanderers in the automatic promotion race, and four points behind league leaders Lincoln.
As the promotion race tightens, the question may not be whether Cardiff should play Wintle, but whether they can afford not to.
In a final 10-game run-in, his experience could prove invaluable, his influence this season has been hugely influential and could ensure the club achieves its immediate goal of an instant return to the Championship.
