As we head into Round 34, the Riverside Stadium hosts a clash of two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum.
Middlesbrough, currently sitting in 2nd place with 62 points, are just three points shy of leaders Coventry. In stark contrast, Leicester City find themselves in a desperate fight for survival, languishing in 22nd place with 33 points.
Under Kim Hellberg, Middlesbrough has evolved into a high-possession machine, averaging 66% ball retention.
Our analysis shows a heavy reliance on the right flank for offensive transitions. With a 79% passing accuracy in the final third, Boro’s ability to sustain pressure is elite.
Leicester, who have consistently struggled to defend wide areas in their 4-2-3-1 setup, look particularly vulnerable here.
This graphic illustrates Middlesbrough’s tactical focus on the right flank. The combination of high passing accuracy (79%) and consistent shots on target (6.6) highlights their efficiency in isolating opposition full-backs.
The data reveals a “Danger Zone” that could decide the match.
Middlesbrough are most clinical at the start of the second half and in the final 15 minutes, scoring 23 of their 50 goals during these periods.
Leicester’s defensive lapses align perfectly with this, having conceded 17 goals in the same intervals.
With an Expected Goals (xG) of 1.67 vs 1.06, the statistical probability heavily favors a home win, especially considering Boro’s 6.6 shots on target per match.
The data highlights a significant tactical advantage for Boro during the 45-60′ and 75-90′ periods. Green bars represent goals scored by Middlesbrough, while red bars show goals conceded by Leicester.
While Leicester will fight for every point in their battle for survival, relying on a compact 4-2-3-1 formation, the absence of three key players and one suspension is expected to take its toll.
Oxford United’s recent success in snatching a point at the Riverside serves as a warning for Hellberg, but Boro’s offensive firepower currently looks unstoppable.
We anticipate a dynamic encounter with over 2.5 goals and a high number of set pieces (over 8 corners), driven by the home side’s dominant wing play.
