As the 2025-2026 EFL Championship season unfolds, the battle at the bottom is as intense as ever while AI proceeds to analyse the fate of 3 clubs to be in a pivotal situation after the Boxing Day results.
The division is notoriously unforgiving, and for teams to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap, a strong start is paramount. The build up to the busy Boxing Day fixtures often exposes fundamental weaknesses within a squad. A mix of reasons include; a lack of depth, an inability to adapt to the higher tempo, or the damaging loss of key personnel during the summer transfer window.
22. Oxford United
Oxford United’s current squad composition heading into the Championship season raises significant concerns. The core of their promotion-winning side, including the midfield drive of Cameron Brannagan and the goal threat of Mark Harris, remains intact.
However, the critical issue is a lack of significant, Championship-level additions as of mid-July. The club’s transfer business has been modest, focusing on players from lower divisions who, like the existing squad, are unproven at this level.
The fixture list offers no mercy; their season opener is a trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich City, a game where their open, attacking style is likely to be punished, with a 3-0 defeat projected. This is followed by another daunting away day at Sheffield United.
Their trip to the King Power Stadium on September 24th will be a stark illustration of the gulf in class, likely resulting in a 4-0 loss. While they may secure a nervy 1-1 draw at home against fellow promoted side Portsmouth in early December.
Their lack of squad investment and a brutal schedule points towards a long, arduous winter fighting from the bottom.
23. Sheffield Wednesday
The club has been decimated by the departures of its two most influential players: club captain Barry Bannan and midfield engine Will Vaulks who both left at the conclusion of their contracts.
Their leadership, experience, and on-field quality are irreplaceable with the limited budget available. The current recruitment has consisted of loan signings from Premier League youth sides and free transfers from League One, none of whom possess the calibre of the departed players. This leaves their squad looking alarmingly thin and devoid of proven Championship quality. The fixture computer has been incredibly unkind, handing them a brutal start.
They open at home against a Leicester City side expected to challenge for the title, a fixture that is projected to end in a 3-0 defeat. This is followed by tough away games at Coventry and Ipswich.
Their defensive frailties will be cruelly exposed in fixtures like the home clash with Southampton on November 29th, where another heavy loss, predicted at 3-0, seems inevitable. A scrappy draw against a fellow struggler like Wrexham might provide brief respite on December 14th. The catastrophic loss of their core leaders will see them mired in the relegation zone.
24. Wrexham AFC
Wrexham’s incredible journey to the Championship is one of modern football’s great stories, but the fairytale is set to collide with the harsh reality of the second tier. The current squad, which has been so dominant in lower leagues, is considered by AI to lack goalscorers.
AI considers their fixture difficulties as the main reason; immediately apparent with an opening-day trip to face Southampton at St. Mary’s, a fixture that has all the hallmarks of a chastening 4-0 welcome to the division. The intense atmosphere at the Racecourse Ground will win them some points, but it won’t be enough to overcome the technical and tactical superiority of most opponents.
This will be evident in a predicted 3-1 home loss to a well-drilled Middlesbrough on October 1st. Even a clash with another newly-promoted side, Birmingham City, on November 9th will be a huge test, likely ending in a narrow 2-1 defeat. The sheer chasm in quality between their current squad and the rest of the league will likely prove insurmountable.
A warning for clubs that may get dragged into the bottom 3
Millwall, Preston North End, and Charlton Athletic could also face relegation challenges, but current trajectory and summer signings suggest they have a slight edge in squad quality and fixture manageability compared to the three clubs above.
Conclusion
While football’s unpredictability means surprises are inevitable, Oxford United, QPR, and Wrexham appear most likely to populate the bottom three places in the Championship table after Boxing Day in the 2025-2026 season, based on current squad strength, transfer activity, and fixture lists. The January transfer window could prove pivotal for these clubs in their fight for survival.
