The EFL have made the widely unpopular decision to changed the system of the Championship play-offs from next season. But will extending the qualifying spots to 7th and 8th placed teams actually make a difference?
We’ll take a look at the recent seasons in the National League, where they use the same system, to see if any of those lowest placed teams have tasted success.
An extra two games have been added to the existing EFL Championship Play-Offs to accommodate for those teams. These will come in the form of the “eliminator” games.
They will be contested by the teams finishing 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th, while 3rd and 4th will automatically go into the standard two-legged semi finals.
5th will play 8th and 6th will play 7th in a one off game to determine who will reach the semi-final stages.
If we used the current standings from this season, Millwall and Ipswich would go straight to the semi-finals, while Hull would face Southampton and Wrexham would face Derby in the two Eliminator games.
The key difference in the change is that regardless of who progresses in the eliminators, the third placed team will always play against the lowest-ranked remaining team in the semi-finals.
For example if 8th and 6th progress in their eliminator ties, 3rd will play 8th. The second leg of the semi-final will be at the home of that third placed team as well.
The claim for this is to try and maximise the advantage of securing the highest finish during the league phase.
The National League has used the same system since 2018 – albeit their semi-finals being just a singular game. But have the teams finishing 6th and 7th been successful despite being the bottom two teams in the play-offs?
In short, and maybe usurpingly to most, it’s a no. Out of the eight campaigns since changing, one of the teams finishing 6th or 7th have been promoted just once.
The lucky outcasts were Grimsby Town in the 2021/22 season, where they beat Solihull Moors 2-1 after extra time at the London Stadium after a 6th place finish.
The Mariners made their own Hollywood story when they dumped out Wrexham in a thrilling 5-4 semi-final win before getting back into the Football League.
Just last season, Southend United came close becoming the only 7th placed team to manage promotion. Unfortunately for The Shrimpers, they were on the wrong side of a 3-2 score line against Oldham at Wembley.
Ultimately they are the only two teams to reach the final after a finish in the bottom two places. It seems like another scramble this season to reach those illustrious play-off spots in the top tier of non-league.
Whilst there is understandably a big gulf in quality between the Championship and National League, it’s a handy case study to see what could happen.
The worry for most is the difference in class should a 7th or 8th placed team reach the Premier League.
However, those in charge at the top of the EFL don’t agree with the issue.
They see it as more top-class games, more money going into the teams and aren’t concerned about the quality difference.
Southampton (who currently sit 8th in the Championship table) have just dumped a resurgent Fulham out of the FA Cup.
This further proves the bosses point that they would still be competitive if they, or any other side, managed promotion.
Whilst much can change between now and next season’s finish when the system is implemented, it’s an interesting move. It could either shake up the league for good or backfire spectacularly. But which end of the spectrum that is we’ll just have to wait and see…
