EFL Final Day: Full Guide to Promotion, Play-Off & Relegation Drama

It’s all come down to this, the EFL’s final matchday takes place this Saturday with many club’s fates still on the line.

Who goes up? Who makes the play-off lottery? Who faces falling into those relegation places?

There’s a lot a stake but fear not, here’s a guide of all the outcomes to watch out for this weekend.

Championship

First Place

Leeds United and Burnley have already booked their tickets to the Premier League but who tops the table has come down the final day.

Both sides sit on 97 points, unfortunately for Burnley, Leeds goal difference is 14 goals better off than theirs. United travel to Plymouth Argyle whilst the Clarets host Millwall. Both of these games hold stakes for all involved but Scott Parkers team will need a huge favour to claim the league title.

Play-Offs

Sheffield United and Sunderland are the two teams to have confirmed a play-off place. As for positions fifth and sixth, it all comes down to the final day.

PositionClubPlayedGDPoints
5.Bristol City45+467
6.Coventry45+466
7.Millwall45066
8.Blackburn45+565
9.Middlesbrough45+1064

Whilst Bristol City and Coventry City occupy the desired spots, both could drop out by full-time on Saturday. For the Robins a win is the only way to ensure a spot, whilst Coventry need to do the same and hope Millwall can’t match the result and overturn a four-goal swing.

Bristol City host Preston North End after two straight losses, with the opposition needing a win to ensure their safety in the division.

Coventry, who have also lost their last two, take on Middlesbrough, the outsider for the play-off places. Middlesbrough have the best goal difference of the chasing pack but have only won once in their last five. They would need a win and both Blackburn and Millwall to fail to do so.

Millwall host already promoted Burnley. The Lions will be hoping that the Clarets aren’t interested in the league title as the hosts need to better the results of either Bristol or Coventry to get in. Failing that they would have to overturn a four-goal swing. Not an easy task.

Blackburn Rovers run of four wins in their last five has seen them back in the picture. They head over the Pennines to Sheffield United. Whilst the Blades have nothing to play for, they won’t make it easy. Rovers need to better the results of two of the three teams above them to sneak in.

Relegation

A total of six teams still has their fate to be decided at the bottom, with Cardiff City the only confirmed relegation so far.

PositionTeamPlayedGDPoints
18.Stoke City45-1750
19.Derby 45-849
20.PNE45-1149
21.Luton Town45-2249
22.Hull City45-1048
23.Plymouth45-3646

Stoke City and Derby are all but safe, only problem is, they face each other on the final day. A point could be enough to clinch safety for both teams but in the unlikely case all below win, it could force the point.

Preston North End are completely out of form losing four out of their las five. They have to play Bristol City, and we know they need a win to secure a play-off place. PNE are a serious contender here.

Under Matt Bloomfield, Luton Town have found themselves, winning their last three games. They face West Bromwich Albion, who, luckily for Luton have nothing to play for after falling out of the paly-off win. Three point is the only way to confirm safety by themselves.

Hull City are in real trouble being a point behind Luton. Whilst they take on midtable Portsmouth, they require other results to go their way. A win and a Luton or PNE loss with City’s goal difference would keep them up.

For Plymouth Argyle, a miracle is required. The teams -36 goal difference makes things tricky. They need two teams to lose above them and overturn at least a 14-goal swing. That’s before mentioning that they have to get past Leeds United. If it wasn’t the Championship, you’d say it’s safe to say Plymouth are down.

League One

In League One the majority of outcomes are already decided.

Birmingham City have won the league with a record number of points, whilst Wrexham officially joined them in moving up last weekend.

At the bottom end of the table, Burton Albion got the point they needed to secure survival in midweek. Crawley Town, Bristol Rovers, Cambridge United and Shrewsbury Town will all be playing League Two football next season.

Play-Offs

The only thing left to decide in League One is that final play-of spot.

Stockport County, Wycombe Wanderers and Charlton Athletic have all secured a spot, whilst their final position could change, they cannot drop out of the top six.

Leyton Orient currently occupy sixth on 75 points with a +21 goal difference. Orient head up north to Huddersfield Town, a team who have lost all of their last five games. A win and there would have to be at least an eight-goal swing for them to drop out.

Reading is the only team who can spoil Orient’s party. The Royals are also on 75 points, but their goal difference is only +13. They will need Huddersfield to find some magic alongside beating mid-table Barnsley who have found some form recently.

League Two

The craziest promotion race in the EFL reached a partial conclusion last week as both Doncaster Rovers and Port Vale confirmed the step up. At the bottom, Carlisle United’s valiant effort to stay up came to an end, whilst Morecombe’s fate had already been confirmed.

Notts County, Walsall and Bradford City have all confirmed a play-off place, but all three could still make the final automatic promotion place. Third is not the only thing up for grabs as five teams are still in contention for the remaining to spots in the play-offs.

First Place

Doncaster Rovers are a point above Port Vale in the table, but the Yorkshire side have to play Notts County on the final day, a team after a win.

Vale has Gillingham, who have nothing to play for. The goal difference between the teams is just two so this could go down to the wire should both sides not yet be on holiday.

In the end Rovers one point advantage could be all the difference.

Third Place

The third and final automatic promotion place. All three teams that could get this spot have won no more than once in their last five games.

PositionTeamPlayedGDPoints
3.Bradford City45+1875
4.Walsall45+2074
5.Notts County45+2072

Bradford City are clingy onto third by a thread. The teams last win came four games ago and they had to watch Yorkshire rivals Doncaster get promoted against them last week.

For City it is simple, if they beat Fleetwood Town they are up. If not, it becomes hold on and hope but the side’s goal difference being two goals inferior to others could come into play.

Since being 12 points clear at the top of the table, Walsall have fallen off a cliff. For them to get up on Saturday they’ll have to do something they have almost forgotten to, win. They take on Crewe knowing they have to better Bradford’s result to claim the third.

Notts County are three points off third with an outside chance of getting in. They will have to beat Doncaster and hope those above lose. If that scenario is playing out, it is then that the sides goal difference will come into it, having the same as Walsall.

Play-Offs

This one could get complicated. Up to five teams are vying for two remaining spots in the play-offs.

PositionTeamPlayedGDPoints
6.Wimbledon45+2070
7.Salford45+1068
8.Grimsby45-568
9.Chesterfield45+1867
10Colchester45+566

Wimbledon are in the healthiest position, two points above any of the chasing pack. Unfortunately, they play Grimsby on the final day with Mariners knowing they have to better Salford’s result and score some goals with their inferior goal difference.

With Wimbledon’s goal difference, a point is probably enough to see them in but Grimsby have to win and win convincingly.

Salford City play already relegated Carlisle United after winning their last two games. A win confirms it for them, unless Grimsby beat Wimbledon by 15 goals. Yeah, think a win will do it for Karl Robinson’s men but Mark Hughes’s team will be no pushover.

Chesterfield sits a point below Salford in the final play-off place but have a better goal difference by eight goals. They travel to Accrington Stanley, who have just confirmed their position in the league. If Chesterfield can better Salford and Grimsby’s result, they can make it in.

Colchester United are the outside hopefuls for the top seven, two points off that final place. They face mid-table Barrow, needing a win and other results to fall in place for them to make it. The way this League Two season’s been, you wouldn’t rule it out.

There is so much to play for on the final day and it will not doubt go down to the wire. All Championship fixtures kick off at 12:30, with League One and Two getting underway at 3.

Matt Bottomley
Matt Bottomley

Writer At The Lower Tiers

Articles: 79

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